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Early Oscar '01 Nominee Predictions

Opening Commentary: Admittedly I'm a little more apathetic about this year's Oscar competition, predominately because I'm apathetic about this year's product.  Sure, I happen to be a fan of some of the year's biggest so-called disappointments, Moulin Rouge and A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, but I do not share the great amount of happiness held for films like Memento and A Beautiful Mind.  I would not be surprised if my four predictions for Mulholland Dr. proves to be nothing more than wishful thinking.

The Golden Globes once again put everything into perspective, finally situating some hopefuls into almost sure-bet territory.  In the Bedroom, Mulholland Dr., Moulin Rouge, and a few others still have some herdals to jump before hitting the final five -- their Golden Globe nominations could possibly be a return to the Sunshine nominations last year.

At this point in the game, I'm predicting The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring to sweep this year.  13 nominations in all, with a possible 14th for Ian McKellen.  As it looks right now, Lord of Rings could quite possibly follow the line of winners who had recieved the most nominations (Gladiator, anyone?  Shakespeare in Love?).  I think that over the next couple months it will become even more clear that the Peter Jackson film is the frontrunner in many races (though, I have my doubts that it will take the 11 nominations needed to tie Titanic and Ben Hur).

So now that we are in one of the few lulls in the awards season (the next awards announcement is the National Society of Film Critics on 5 January), I have decided to look at the Oscar prospects at this moment.

Nota Bene: I am not the king of Oscar nominee predictions. Alex Fung is much better at the nominees. My claim to fame is predicting the winners, where I had won a competition for three straight years (and that's not even including the year that I predicted the Juliette Binoche upset in 1996) until my mediocre job last year. The week before the Academy Awards, I'll have a special column out on who should win and who will win. Take that closer to home -- take this with a grain of salt.

In parenthesis are awards and nominations given in that category (NBR = National Board of Review, LAFC = Los Angles Film Critics, NYFC = New York Film Critics, BFC = Boston Film Critics, TFC = Toronto Film Critics, BrFC = Broadcast Film Critics, SDFC = San Diego Film Critics, EFA = European Film Awards, AFI = American Film Institute, GS = Golden Satellites, GG = Golden Globes; [H] = Honorary Award, W = Winner, N = Nominee or Runner- Up).

So now my own version of Alex Fung's "wild, flailing guesses with little basis in reality."

Note: due to how far away the actual nominations are, I'm only going to give explanatory remarks on picture, director, acting, and writing awards. Also I'm not going to work with the Best Animated Short, Best Live Action Short, Best Documentary Short Subject, and Best Documentary Feature nominations since I have absolutely no idea what films are in competition.

Best Picture

22 December Predictions
Ali (N: BrFC)
A Beautiful Mind (N: BrFC, AFI, GG)
In the Bedroom (W: LAFC, NYFC [H], TFC [H]; N: NBR, NYFC, BrFC, AFI, GS, GG)
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (W: NBR [H]; N: BFC, BrFC, AFI, GS, GG)
Mulholland Dr. (W: NYFC, BFC; N: NBR, LAFC, TFC, BrFC, AFI, GG)

Other Possibilities: A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, Amélie, Black Hawk Down, Gosford Park, Iris, The Majestic, The Man Who Wasn't There, Memento, Moulin Rouge, The Others, The Royal Tenenbaums, The Shipping News, Shrek.

The Best Picture race this year fails to really have much to show-off at this point. Since Ali, The Shipping News, The Royal Tenenbaums, In the Bedroom, Iris, and Black Hawk Down have failed to go into wide release, I'll try not to pass judgment on them, but the fact that a movie like A Beautiful Mind has a strong chance of running off with a nomination this year (and possibly winning in March) makes me yearn for a time when mediocre films like The Sixth Sense received nominations.

A Beautiful Mind and Moulin Rouge led the pack of Golden Globe nominees with 6 nominations each. Since Moulin Rouge was a contender in the less competitive Best Musical/Comedy categories, I'm going to slightly belittle its chances (not as a statement of distaste for the film -- on the contrary, I think its one of the year's best -- but a fear that its vanguard style will fail to grab many of the Academy's most conservative voters).

The other film that seems to have a death grip on a nomination is Peter Jackson's big-budget hit The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Rings. Since the movie has come out to stunning reviews from both Tolkien fans and the uninitiated, the movie looks like it could easily follow in the precedent created by Star Wars in 1977. Considering it is the only epic with a strong chance of getting a nomination (and will probably receive the most nominations), The Lord of Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring could do what Star Wars didn't do: win.

Critic's darlings In the Bedroom and Mulholland Dr. also pose a major threat to take spots from the more accessible films. With the Miramax machine behind it, In the Bedroom could become the perennial nominee for the studio (what's that, 10 years running now?) and a weight of critic's award recognition should push it into the mind of voters. Taking most of the awards In the Bedroom loses, Mulholland Dr. could become the first David Lynch film to receive a Best Picture nomination since The Elephant Man -- that is, of course, as long as the Lynchian dreamscape that is Mulholland Dr. does not turnoff most of the voters.

Early bloomers (and, unfortunately, disappointers) A.I.: Artificial Intelligence and Moulin Rouge could pull an upset, though unlikely especially for the former. Meanwhile, Miramax might just weasel their way into a second Best Picture nomination for either the French audience-pleaser Amélie, the Sixth Sense-like ghost story The Others, or the latest from perennial nominee Lasse Hallström The Shipping News. All those could come in for the last spot, but I'm giving the slight edge to Ali, which might just have the appeal from both technicians and older conservatives that will merit a nomination (and, yes, an Ali nomination makes far more sense than The Hurricane two years ago, which was hampered by a highly competitive year, an extremely political viewpoint, and a less than steller final product).

Best Director

22 December Predictions
Robert Altman - Gosford Park (W: NYFC; N: LAFC, AFI, GG)
Ron Howard - A Beautiful Mind (N: BrFC, GG)
Peter Jackson - The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (N: BFC, TFC, BrFC, GG)
David Lynch - Mulholland Dr. (W: LAFC, BFC, TFC; N: NYFC, AFI, GG)
Michael Mann - Ali

Other Possibilities: Alejandro Amenábar for The Others, Wes Anderson for The Royal Tenenbaums, Joel Coen for The Man Who Wasn't There, Frank Darabont for The Majestic, Todd Field for In the Bedroom, Lasse Hallström for The Shipping News, Jean-Pierre Jeunet for Amélie, Baz Luhrmann for Moulin Rouge, Christopher Nolan for Memento, Ridley Scott for Black Hawk Down, Steven Soderbergh for Ocean's 11, Steven Spielberg for A.I.: Artificial Intelligence.

Most of the directors of films in the running for Best Picture look like strong choices in the Best Director race. Like the Best Picture category, A Beautiful Mind's Ron Howard and The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring's Peter Jackson seem set for nominations. The other Best Picture nominees I predict will have an easier time getting a position in this race than in the Best Picture race in the end since only the directors, who have higher feelings for names like David Lynch and Michael Mann, will be voting.

For that very reason, Robert Altman should have no trouble getting a nomination for his work on the well accepted Gosford Park, which has brought him some of his best reviews in nearly a decade. Todd Field, whose film In the Bedroom will probably get a nomination, might be the person knocked out by Altman since his lesser known status in the industry might hurt. Then again, the movie is getting strong press and other first time directors like Spike Jonze and Sam Mendes have received nominations in a more competitive year.

There's always a chance that the more visual storytellers will come in with Lynch, as Alejandro Amenábar, Jean-Pierre Jeunet, and Baz Luhrmann might pose a threat. Last year's dual nominee and winner Steven Soderbergh may have a less weighty film to offer this year, but his direction is still at the same level, though I doubt the Director's Branch will jump at nominating him a third time in two years. Regular nominees Frank Darabont and Lasse Hallström might also come in, though the less-than-stellar reviews for their films will not help them.

And, don't count out Christopher Nolan and his early in the year favorite Memento from getting a nomination. This is definitely a film that the branch might just latch onto and it is too early to correctly gauge how the film is doing with voters (a near shut-out at the Golden Globes does not help).

Best Actor

22 December Predictions
Russell Crowe - A Beautiful Mind (N: BrFC, SDFC, AFI, GS, GG)
Will Smith - Ali (N: BrFC, GG)
Billy Bob Thornton - The Man Who Wasn't There (W: NBR; N: AFI, GG)
Denzel Washington - Training Day (W: LAFC, BFC; N: NYFC, AFI, GS, GG)
Tom Wilkinson - In the Bedroom (W: NYFC; N: LAFC, AFI)

Other Possibilities: Jim Carrey for The Majestic, Gene Hackman for The Royal Tenenbaums, Ewan McGregor for Moulin Rouge, John Cameron Mitchell for Hedwig and the Angry Inch, Haley Joel Osment for A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, Guy Pearce for Memento, Sean Penn for I Am Sam, Kevin Spacey for The Shipping News.

This may not be the year for rising talents to come in with an Oscar nomination in this category, pretty much all the spots are taken by established actors. Sure, Will Smith has yet to establish himself as a strong dramatic actor, but early reviews are commending him on his work as Mohammed Ali across the board. The schizophrenic mathematician from Russell Crowe, a moody barber from Billy Bob Thornton, and a rogue cop from Denzel Washington seem to have the workings of Best Actor nominees. The somewhat open fifth spot seems to currently be courting Tom Wilkinson, who's receiving a great deal of praise for his In the Bedroom work.

This category, of course, always seems to throw in some surprise replacing what was once a sure bet, so do not think that those men with death grips on nominations are completely infallible to what could be a strong push of support for a youth like Haley Joel Osment (who really does deliver a performance far better than his nominated work in The Sixth Sense) or a veteran like Gene Hackman. Some early musing on Sean Penn nomination for I Am Sam may be hurt by the actor's decision to actively oppose the awards this year (usually, he chooses to not note the Oscar buzz around him, but this year he has gone on the record dismissing it). And, as I should always note, Miramax might just pull a tiny coup with a Kevin Spacey nomination for The Shipping News. Hey, as long as it's not for K-Pax.

Best Actress

22 December Predictions
Judi Dench - Iris (N: GS, GG)
Nicole Kidman - The Others (N: GS, GG)
Sissy Spacek - In the Bedroom (W: LAFC, NYFC; N: BrFC, AFI, GS, GG)
Tilda Swinton - The Deep End (W: BFC; N: NYFC, TFC, GS, GG)
Audrey Tatou - Amélie (N: GS)

Other Possibilities: Halle Berry for Monster's Ball, Thora Birch for Ghost World, Cate Blanchett for Charlotte Grey, Stockard Channing for The Business of Strangers, Nicole Kidman for Moulin Rouge, Julianne Moore for The Shipping News, Charlotte Rampling for Under the Sand, Naomi Watts for Mulholland Dr., Renée Zellweger for Bridget Jones's Diary.

I have not seen Charlotte Grey yet, but I'm willing to bet that Cate Blanchett delivers a performance more than worthy of an Oscar nomination. However, all this is useless since she has three performances taking away from each other (Grey [a lead role], Bandits [could be lead or supporting, MGM is pushing her in the latter], and The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Rings [a supporting role]). Oh, and there's also the fact that no one in the Academy seems to think that she is as worthy of yearly nominations as I do.

The Best Actress race is a little weak this year, though the Xenophobes of the Academy could really brighten up the affair by noting performances from Lena Endre in Faithless, Juliette Binoche in The Widow of Saint-Pierre, and Charlotte Rampling in Under the Sand. As it is now, the only foreign actress with much of a chance is Audrey Tatou, but her performance (which was sweet nonetheless) will be hurt by the fact that it is nothing more than her reacting and making cute faces to the camera.

Oscar favorites Sissy Spacek and Judi Dench have strong holds on nominations with their absolute support from many constituents (especially Specek, who is getting her best reviews in decades). Nicole Kidman will probably get a nomination for her work in The Others, though her equally formidable performance in Moulin Rouge could hurt it (the only reason I'm giving The Others performance the edge over Moulin Rouge is that the former is being aggressively pushed by Miramax). An indie film actress will probably fill the fifth position, probably Golden Globe nominee Tilda Swinton (who, by the way, deserves the nomination -- it is really one of the finest this year).

I'll write more on Naomi Watts in the Best Supporting Actress race.

Best Supporting Actor

22 December Predictions
Jim Broadbent - Iris (W: NBR, LAFC; N: NYFC, BrFC, GS, GG)
Steve Buscemi - Ghost World (W: NYFC, SDFC [H]; N: BFC, TFC, SDFC, AFI, GS, GG)
Ed Harris - A Beautiful Mind (N: GS)
Ben Kingsley - Sexy Beast (W: BFC, TFC, SDFC, EFA; N: LAFC, NYFC, BrFC, GS, GG)
Jon Voight - Ali (N: BrFC, GG)

Other Possibilities: Hayden Christensen for Life as a House, Brian Cox for L.I.E., Martin Landau for The Majestic, Jude Law for A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, Ian McKellen for The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Joe Pantoliano for Memento.

Like Best Actor, the Best Supporting Actor race is pretty much held by four actors with a strong chance for a fifth. Critic's darling Jim Broadbent (who will be hurt slightly -- and I do mean very slightly -- by support for his performance in Moulin Rouge), recent hero Steve Buscemi (who, in my opinion, deserves the award regardless of his efforts to help in the World Trade Center ruins), and longtime frontrunner Ben Kingsley (who is almost assured a nomination, though his momentum to win has died down some since Sexy Beast came out) seem to have their nominations in the bag.

Even though the Academy for some unknown reason did not give a nomination to Christopher Plummer for The Insider in 1999, they will probably follow through with a Jon Voight nomination, in part because he not only delivers a great Howard Cossell in Ali but also for his Franklin D. Roosevelt in Pearl Harbor.

My money is on Ed Harris getting the third spot since some hold-over attention for Pollock last year (I'm still a little surprised that he lost to Russell Crowe, to tell the truth). Though, I should point out, he could possibly be knocked out by veterans Brian Cox (hurt by the nature of his movie), Martin Landau, or Ian McKellen. All those men have strong chances, though I'd say the one with the biggest possibility to unseat Harris is McKellen, who might come in if a Lord of the Rings sweep extends into an acting award (which, if all my other Lord of the Rings nominations are right, will bring the film to a record-tying 14 nominations).

Best Supporting Actress

22 December Predictions
Jennifer Connelly - A Beautiful Mind (N: BrFC, AFI, GS, GG)
Helen Mirren - Gosford Park (W: NYFC; N: LAFC, BrFC [H], GS, GG)
Maggie Smith - Gosford Park (N: NYFC, BrFC [H], SDFC, GS, GG)
Naomi Watts - Mulholland Dr. (W: NBR [H], SDFC; N: LAFC, NYFC, BFC, AFI)
Kate Winslet - Iris (W: LAFC; N: GS, GG)

Other Possibilities: Judi Dench for The Shipping News, Cameron Diaz for Vanilla Sky, Angelica Huston for The Royal Tenenbaums, Frances McDormand for The Man Who Wasn't There, Gwyneth Paltrow for The Royal Tenenbaums, Marisa Tomei for In the Bedroom, Emily Watson for Gosford Park.

Naomi Watts is the oddity of the year with her strong support in the Best Actress race and complete push by Universal in the Best Supporting Actress race. I'm sure that the studio sees her as having a stronger chance in this category, which may be true, but the unbelievable support she's receiving from critic's awards are as a lead actress (San Diego is the only group that awarded her as a supporting player). The decision to support her as a lead is completely understandable since she is, without a doubt, the lead of Mulholland Dr. and her worthiness of inclusion in that category is unquestionable. But, with all the Universal ads (though, screener tape fails to note her as a lead or a supporting player) pointing voters in one way, I'm thinking the lion's share of the votes will come in this category and bring her a nomination here -- hopefully.

Two of ladies from Gosford Park, Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith, each from a different social stature in the film, should easily make their way into nominations, though a third, Emily Watson, still has a chance to come in as well. Jennifer Connelly, the only thing denouncers of A Beautiful Mind (myself included) seem to like, will probably get a nomination, though it's a year late.

Early buzz on Kate Winslet has made her a likely candidate for the fifth position in this category, though the surprise factor could always bring in someone like Cameron Diaz in (a nomination two years late). Marisa Tomei has garnered some major attention for her work in In the Bedroom and looks like a strong possibility to receive her second nomination (by the way, if she were to somehow knock out Jennifer Connelly, Tomei would once again stand as the only American in a category of Brits and Aussies, the same state that brought her an award for My Cousin Vinny). Old favorites like Frances McDormand, Angelica Huston, and especially Judi Dench could also make it into the final five.

Best Adapted Screenplay

22 December Predictions
A Beautiful Mind - Akiva Goldsman (N: BrFC, SDFC, AFI, GS, GG)
Ghost World - Daniel Clowes and Terry Zwigoff (W: SDFC; N: LAFC, BFC, TFC, AFI)
In the Bedroom - Rob Festinger and Todd Field (W: NBR; N: AFI, GS)
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring - Frank Walsh, Philippa Boyens, and Peter Jackson (N: GS)
The Shipping News - Robert Nelson Jacobs

Other Possibilities: A.I.: Artificial Intelligence by Steven Spielberg, Black Hawk Down by Ken Nolan and Steven Zaillian, Bridget Jones's Diary by Helen Fielding, Andrew Davies, and Richard Curtis, The Deep End by Scott McGhee and David Siegel, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone by Steve Kloves, Iris by Richard Eyre and Charles Wood, Shrek by Ted Elliott and Terry Rossio, Vanilla Sky by Cameron Crowe.

Earlier I remarked that The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring looks to possibly tie the record of nominations with Titanic and All About Eve. The only reason that Titanic does not have the record to itself (and essentially a stronger chance of freedom from Lord of the Rings treading on it) is that it failed to get a screenplay nomination, something that looks completely unlikely to happen to the Peter Jackson film. I'd even venture to say that it will probably win for its adaptation of the J.R.R. Tolkien classic.

Most of the other positions are weakly held by a collection of films. Akiva Goldsman for some unknown reason is situated for a nomination thanks to an outpour of support for A Beautiful Mind, and Miramax seems determined to get Robert Nelson Jacobs a nomination for The Shipping News (and, from what I've heard, it is a pretty solid script). Indie favorites Ghost World and In the Bedroom should hold on to the other spots, though their ability to keep the spots until February is not too assured, especially for the Clowes/Zwigoff script, though it is the best of the bunch.

Best Original Screenplay

22 December Predictions
Ali - Eric Roth and Michael Mann
Gosford Park - Julian Fellowes (W: NYFC; N: SDFC, GG)
The Man Who Wasn't There - Joel and Ethan Coen (N: BrFC, GG)
Memento - Christopher Nolan (W: LAFC, BFC, TFC; N: NYFC, BrFC, AFI, GS, GG)
Mulholland Dr. - David Lynch (N: GG)

Other Possibilities: Amélie by Jean-Pierre Jeunet and Guillaume Laurant, The Majestic by Michael Sloane, Monster's Ball by Milo Addica and Will Rokos, Moulin Rouge by Baz Luhrmann and Craig Pierce, The Others by Alejandro Amenábar, The Royal Tenenbaums by Wes Anderson and Owen Wilson, Sexy Beast by Louis Mellis and David Scinto.

It's in this category where some of the biggest Best Picture hopefuls should easily pick up a nomination even if they fail in the big category. Gosford Park and Mulholland Dr. will probably take their nominations easily. Meanwhile, Roth, Mann, and the Coen brothers will keep with their screenwriting constituents who have been highly supporting of their work almost every time they write a new movie. Memento, with its unending support in this category, should not only ride into a nomination, but probably a win come March.

Looking at the other possible nominees, I'm a little questionable: while all these scripts are truly promising, their ability to unseat the five I've already mentioned seems unlikely. Only if there's an outpour of support for Moulin Rouge or Miramax succeeds in aggressively pushing Amélie should there be any upset. But, then again, voting does not begin for another month and anything can happen.

Best Cinematography

22 December Predictions
A.I.: Artificial Intelligence - Janusz Kaminski (N: AFI)
Ali - Emmanuel Lubezki
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring - Andrew Lesnie (N: GS)
The Man Who Wasn't There - Roger Deakins (W: LAFC, SDFC; N: NYFC, BFC, AFI, GS)
Moulin Rouge - Donald McAlpine (N: SDFC, GS)

Other Possibilities: Amélie, A Beautiful Mind, Black Hawk Down, Gosford Park, Hearts in Atlantis, In the Bedroom, In the Mood for Love, The Majestic, Memento, Mulholland Dr., Ocean's 11, The Others, Pearl Harbor, The Shipping News, The Vertical Ray of the Sun.

Best Film Editing

22 December Predictions
Ali - William Goldenberg, Lynzee Klingman, and Stephen E. Rivkin
Black Hawk Down - Pietro Scalia (N: AFI)
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring - John Gilbert (N: GS)
Memento - Dody Dorn (N: AFI)
Moulin Rouge - Jill Bilcock (N: AFI, GS)

Other Possibilities: A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, Amélie, A Beautiful Mind, Gosford Park, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, Mulholland Dr., Ocean's 11, The Others.

Best Sound

22 December Predictions
Black Hawk Down
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (N: GS)
Moulin Rouge (N: GS)
Planet of the Apes

Other Possibilities: Ali, Driven, Hannibal, Hedwig and the Angry Inch, The Fast and the Furious, Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within, A Knight's Tale, Jurassic Park III, Memento, The Others, Pearl Harbor, Swordfish.

Best Sound Effects Editing

22 December Predictions
Driven
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (N: GS)
Planet of the Apes

Other Possibilities: Black Hawk Down, The Fast and the Furious, Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, Jurassic Park III, Pearl Harbor, Swordfish.

Best Visual Effects

22 December Predictions
A.I.: Artificial Intelligence (N: AFI)
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (N: AFI, GS)
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (N: AFI, GS)

Other Possibilities: Black Hawk Down, Driven, Evolution, Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within, Jurassic Park III, Lara Croft: Tomb Raider, Moulin Rouge, Pearl Harbor, Planet of the Apes, Swordfish, Waking Life.

Best Makeup

22 December Predictions
Hedwig and the Angry Inch
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Planet of the Apes

Other Possibilities: A.I. Artificial Intelligence, Black Hawk Down, Hannibal, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, Moulin Rouge, Vanilla Sky.

Best Costume Design

22 December Predictions
Black Hawk Down
Gosford Park
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (N: GS)
Moulin Rouge (N: GS)
The Others

Other Possibilities: The Affair of the Necklace, A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, A Beautiful Mind, Enemy at the Gates, From Hell, Hannibal, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, Hedwig and the Angry Inch, Planet of the Apes.

Best Art Direction

22 December Predictions
A.I.: Artificial Intelligence (N: AFI)
Gosford Park (N: AFI, GS)
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (N: GS)
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (W: NBR; N: LAFC, SDFC, AFI, GS)
Moulin Rouge (W: LAFC, SDFC; N: GS)

Other Possibilities: The Affair of the Necklace, A Beautiful Mind, Black Hawk Down, Enemy at the Gates, From Hell, Hannibal, Hedwig and the Angry Inch, The Others, Planet of the Apes.

Best Original Score

22 December Predictions
A.I.: Artificial Intelligence - John Williams (N: BrFC, GG)
Amélie - Yann Tiersen
A Beautiful Mind - James Horner (N: GS, GG)
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring - Howard Shore (W: LAFC; N: BrFC, AFI, GG)
Pearl Harbor - Hans Zimmer (N: GG)

Other Possibilities:  Ali by Lisa Gerrard and Pieter Bourke, Black Hawk Down by Hans Zimmer, Gosford Park by Patrick Doyle, Hannibal by Hans Zimmer, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone by John Williams, The Man Who Wasn't There by Carter Burwell, Memento by David Julyan, Moulin Rouge by Craig Armstrong, Mulholland Dr. by Angelo Badalamenti, The Others by Alejandro Amenábar, The Shipping News by Christopher Young, Shrek by Harry Gregson-Williams, Spy Game by Harry Gregson-Williams.

Best Original Song

22 December Predictions
"For Always" - A.I.: Artificial Intelligence
"May It Be" - The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (N: BrFC, GG)
"There You'll Be" - Pearl Harbor (N: BrFC, GS, GG)
"Until..." - Kate & Leopold (N: BrFC, GG)
"Vanilla Sky" - Vanilla Sky (N: BrFC, GS, GG)

Other Possibilities: "All That Love Can Be" from A Beautiful Mind, "Come What May" from Moulin Rouge, "If I Didn't Have You" from Monsters, Inc., "Vide Cor Meum" from Hannibal, "Where the Dream Takes You" from Atlantis: The Lost Empire, "The World's Greatest" from Ali, "You Can't Walk Away from Love" from Original Sin.

Best Animated Film

22 December Predictions
Monsters, Inc. (N: LAFC, NYFC, BrFC)
Shrek (W: NBR, LAFC; N: NYFC, BrFC, AFI, GS, GG)
Waking Life (W: NYFC; N: BrFC, GS)

Other Possibilities: Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within, Marco Polo: Return to Xanadu, Osmosis Jones, The Prince of Light, The Trumpet of the Swan.

Best Foreign Language Film

22 December Predictions
Amélie - Jean-Pierre Jeunet (France) (W: SDFC, EFA; N: NBR, TFC, BrFC, GS, GG)
Behind the Sun - Walter Salles (Brazil) (N: NBR, GG)
No Man's Land - Danis Tanovic (Bosnia-Herzegovina) (W: LAFC; N: NBR, NYFC, BrFC, GS, GG)
The Piano Teacher - Michael Haneke (Austria) (N: EFA)
The Son's Room - Nanni Moretti (Italy) (N: EFA)

Other Possibilities: Columbia's Our Lady of the Assassins from Barbet Schroeder, Czech Republic's Dark Blue World from Jan Sverak, Denmark's Italian for Beginners from Lone Scherfig, Germany's Das Experiment from Oliver Hirschbiegel, Iran's Baran from Majid Majidi, Russia's The Romanovs: An Imperial Family from Gleb Panfilov, Switzerland's In Praise of Love from Jean-Luc Godard.

-- FINAL TALLY --

The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring...#13
Ali...#7
A Beautiful Mind...#7
Gosford Park...#6
A.I.: Artificial Intelligence...#5
Moulin Rouge...#5
In the Bedroom...#4
Mulholland Dr....#4
Amélie...#3
Black Hawk Down...#3
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone...#3
Iris...#3
The Man Who Wasn't There...#3
Planet of the Apes...#3
Ghost World...#2
Memento...#2
The Others...#2
Pearl Harbor...#2
Behind Enemy Lines...#1
The Deep End...#1
Driven...#1
Hedwig and the Angry Inch...#1
Kate & Leopold...#1
Monsters, Inc....#1
No Man's Land...#1
The Piano Teacher...#1
Sexy Beast...#1
The Shipping News...#1
Shrek...#1
The Son's Room...#1
Training Day...#1
Vanilla Sky...#1
Waking Life...#1

Analysis by:
David Perry
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