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Oscar '02 Pre-Show

Opening Commentary: This year's Oscar coverage is considerably lax because time constraints have made it impossible for me to keep up with both the upcoming film releases and this year's Oscar race.  For that reason -- and the fact that I have five reviews to write as soon as possible -- I'm not going to be able to include my normal paragraph reasoning behind my predictions and personal opinions.  Hopefully next year will be different, and I'll be able to dedicate time to writing on the spate of new movies as well as the opinions I have about the year's Oscar race.  Until then...

For just a moment I would like to make a quick reference to four great places to go for predictions. The first one is from Alex Fung's highly informative web page. Just click on the Oscar part at the top of the page. The other link is to John Harkness. He could easily be called the most knowledged person about the Academy Awards with his annual book on the ceremony. Using gossip from the Hollywood grapevine and the rules of thumb put forth in his book, he has a pretty good listing of predictions that will probably be more accurate than mine. This can be found at the home page of the Toronto Now Magazine (this link is not yet active, Jim Ridley has not released his predictions yet). This year I have two new sites of interest for Oscar buzz. I have found a wealth of information at the Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board, a place for Oscar aficionados to sit back and voice news, opinions, and predictions. The other site is Zeusefer's Year-Round Oscar Prediction Charts, where Zeusefer keeps up with every nook and cranny of the race beginning the week after the previous Academy Awards.

Now onto my highly opinionated (and probably half wrong) musings. I will start off with the eleven main awards where there will be a nice round about reasoning behind the choices. In the place where it says "Will win: ..." that means that I'm deeming it a shoo-in (this will be a rarity considering the fierce battles this year). After that are the lesser "technical" categories where it's usually harder to pick though not always. My "Should win: ..." spot is pretty much as accurate as their going to come being that I have already seen everything in the competitive fields (re: not all of the shorts, documentaries, and foreign nominees). The [Order of Chance: ...] is self descriptive. Once again don't start placing your money on who I say will win because some of them are mere guesses.

--MAIN AWARDS--

Best Picture
Chicago, Gangs of New York, The Hours, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, and The Pianist

Should win: The Pianist.

Will win: Chicago. [Order of Chance: Chicago, The Hours, The Pianist, Gangs of New York, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers]

Best Director
Pedro Almodóvar (Talk to Her), Stephen Daldry (The Hours), Rob Marshall (Chicago), Roman Polanski (The Pianist), and Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York)

Should win: Roman Polanski (The Pianist).

Will win: Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York). [Order of Chance: Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York), Rob Marshall (Chicago), Roman Polanski (The Pianist), Stephen Daldry (The Hours), Pedro Almodóvar (Talk to Her)]

Best Actor
Adrien Brody (The Pianist), Nicholas Cage (Adaptation.), Michael Caine (The Quiet American), Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York), and Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt)

Should win: Adrien Brody (The Pianist).

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York). [Order of Chance: Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York), Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt), Adrien Brody (The Pianist), Nicholas Cage (Adaptation.), Michael Caine (The Quiet American)]

Best Actress
Salma Hayek (Frida), Nicole Kidman (The Hours), Diane Lane (Unfaithful), Julianne Moore (Far from Heaven), and Renée Zellweger (Chicago)

Should win: Julianne Moore (Far from Heaven).

Will win: Nicole Kidman (The Hours). [Order of Chance: Nicole Kidman (The Hours), Renée Zellweger (Chicago), Julianne Moore (Far from Heaven), Salma Hayek (Frida), Diane Lane (Unfaithful)]

Best Supporting Actor
Chris Cooper (Adaptation.), Ed Harris (The Hours), Paul Newman (Road to Perdition), John C. Reilly (Chicago), and Christopher Walken (Catch Me If You Can)

Should win: Chris Cooper (Adaptation.).

Will win: Chris Cooper (Adaptation.). [Order of Chance: Chris Cooper (Adaptation.), Christopher Walken (Catch Me If You Can), Ed Harris (The Hours), Paul Newman (Road to Perdition), John C. Reilly (Chicago)]

Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates (About Schmidt), Juliane Moore (The Hours), Queen Latifah (Chicago), Meryl Streep (Adaptation.), and Catherine Zeta-Jones (Chicago)

Should win: Juliane Moore (The Hours).

Will win: Catherine Zeta-Jones (Chicago). [Order of Chance: Catherine Zeta-Jones (Chicago), Kathy Bates (About Schmidt), Meryl Streep (Adaptation.), Juliane Moore (The Hours), Queen Latifah (Chicago)]

Best Cinematography
Chicago, Far from Heaven, Gangs of New York, The Pianist, and Road to Perdition

Should win: Far from Heaven.

Will win: Road to Perdition. [Order of Chance: Road to Perdition, Chicago, Far from Heaven, Gangs of New York, The Pianist]

Best Foreign Language Film
The Crime of Father Amaro (Mexico), Hero (China), The Man without a Past (Finland), Nowhere in Africa (Germany), and Zus & Zo (The Netherlands)

Should win: N/A. I have not seen any of the nominees.

Will win: Nowhere in Africa (Germany). [Order of Chance: Nowhere in Africa (Germany), The Man without a Past (Finland), Hero (China), The Crime of Father Amaro (Mexico), Zus & Zo (The Netherlands)]

Best Animated Film
Ice Age, Lilo & Stitch, Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron, Spirited Away, and Treasure Island

Should win: Spirited Away.

Will win: Spirited Away. [Order of Chance: Spirited Away, Lilo & Stitch, Ice Age, Treasure Island, Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron]

Best Original Screenplay
Far from Heaven, Gangs of New York, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Talk to Her, and Y Tu Mamá También

Should win: Far from Heaven.

Will win: Talk to Her. [Order of Chance: Talk to Her, Far from Heaven, Gangs of New York, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Y Tu Mamá También]

Best Adapted Screenplay
About a Boy, Adaptation., Chicago, The Hours, and The Pianist

Should win: Adaptation.

Will win: The Hours. [Order of Chance: The Hours, Adaptation., Chicago, About a Boy, The Pianist]

--THE TECHNICAL AWARDS--

Best Visual Effects
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Spider-Man, and Star Wars: Episode II -- Attack of the Clones

Should win: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers.

Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers. [Order of Chance: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Spider-Man, Star Wars: Episode II -- Attack of the Clones]

Best Film Editing
Chicago, Gangs of New York, The Hours, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, and The Pianist

Should win: Gangs of New York.

Will win: Chicago. [Order of Chance: Chicago, Gangs of New York, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, The Hours, The Pianist]

Best Sound
Chicago, Gangs of New York, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Road to Perdition, and Spider-Man

Should win: Chicago.

Will win: Chicago. [Order of Chance: Chicago, Gangs of New York, Road to Perdition, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Spider-Man]

Best Sound Effects Editing
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Minority Report, and Road to Perdition

Should win: Minority Report.

Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers. [Order of Chance: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Minority Report, Road to Perdition]

Best Original Score
Catch Me If You Can, Far from Heaven, Frida, The Hours, and Road to Perdition

Should win: Far from Heaven.

Will win: The Hours. [Order of Chance: The Hours, Catch Me If You Can, Frida, Far from Heaven, Road to Perdition]

Best Original Song
"Burn It Blue" (Frida), "Father and Daughter" (The Wild Thornberries Movie), "The Hands That Built America" (Gangs of New York), "I Move On" (Chicago), and "Lose Yourself" (8 Mile)

Should win: "The Hands That Built America" (Gangs of New York).

Will win: "I Move On" (Chicago). [Order of Chance: "I Move On" (Chicago), "The Hands That Built America" (Gangs of New York), "Father and Daughter" (The Wild Thornberries Movie), "Lose Yourself" (8 Mile), "Burn It Blue" (Frida)]

Best Makeup
Frida and The Time Machine

Should win: Frida.

Will win: Frida. [Order of Chance: Frida, The Time Machine]

Best Costume Design
Chicago, Frida, Gangs of New York, The Hours, and The Pianist

Should win: Gangs of New York.

Will win: Chicago. [Order of Chance: Chicago, Gangs of New York, Frida, The Hours, The Pianist]

Best Art Direction
Chicago, Frida, Gangs of New York, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, and Road to Perdition

Should win: Gangs of New York.

Will win: Gangs of New York. [Order of Chance: Gangs of New York, Chicago, Frida, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Road to Perdition]

Best Documentary Feature
Bowling for Columbine, Daughter from Danang, Prisoner of Paradise, Spellbound, and Winged Migration

Should win: Daughter from Danang. I have only seen the first two nominees.

Will win: Bowling for Columbine. [Order of Chance: Bowling for Columbine, Winged Migration, Prisoner of Paradise, Daughter from Danang, Spellbound]

Best Documentary Short Subject
The Collector of Bedford Street, Mighty Tunes: The Legacy of Rosa Parks, Twin Towers, and Why Can't We Be a Family Again?

Should win: N/A. I have not seen any of the nominees.

Will win: Twin Towers. [Order of Chance: Twin Towers, Mighty Tunes: The Legacy of Rosa Parks, The Collector of Bedford Street, Why Can't We Be a Family Again?]

Best Live-Action Short Film
Fait D'Hiver, I'll Wait for the Next One..., Inja, Johnny Flynton, and This Charming Man

Should win: N/A. I have not seen any of the nominees.

Will win: Johnny Flynton. [Order of Chance: Johnny Flynton, Fait D'Hiver, I'll Wait for the Next One..., Inja, This Charming Man]

Best Animated Short Film
The Cathedral, The Chubbchubbs!, Das Red, Mike's New Car, and Mt. Head

Should win: N/A. I have not seen any of the nominees.

Will win: Mt. Head. [Order of Chance: Mt. Head, The Cathedral, Das Red, The Chubbchubbs!, Mike's New Car]

--FINAL TALLY--

Chicago...6
Gangs of New York...3
The Hours...3
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers...2
Adaptation....1
Bowling for Columbine...1
Frida...1
Johnny Flynton...1
Mt. Head...1
Nowehere in Africa...1
Road to Perdition...1
Spirited Away...1
Talk to Her...1
Twin Towers...1

Analysis by:
David Perry
©2002, Cinema-Scene.com

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