Cinema-Scene.com
Special Edition
Oscar '03 Pre-Show

Opening Commentary: This year's Oscar coverage is considerably lax because time constraints have made it impossible for me to keep up with both the upcoming film releases and this year's Oscar race.  For that reason -- and the fact that I have five reviews to write as soon as possible -- I'm not going to be able to include my normal paragraph reasoning behind my predictions and personal opinions.  Hopefully next year will be different, and I'll be able to dedicate time to writing on the spate of new movies as well as the opinions I have about the year's Oscar race.  Until then...

Now onto my highly opinionated (and probably half wrong) musings. I will start off with the eleven main awards where there will be a nice round about reasoning behind the choices. In the place where it says "Will win: ..." that means that I'm deeming it a shoo-in (this will be a rarity considering the fierce battles this year). After that are the lesser "technical" categories where it's usually harder to pick though not always. My "Should win: ..." spot is pretty much as accurate as their going to come being that I have already seen everything in the competitive fields (re: not all of the shorts, documentaries, and foreign nominees). The [Order of Chance: ...] is self descriptive. Once again don't start placing your money on who I say will win because some of them are mere guesses.

--MAIN AWARDS--

Best Picture
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Lost in Translation, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Mystic River, and Seabiscuit

Should win: Mystic River.

Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Even if the film fails to get many more awards (I'm predicting a surprisingly low 5 awards, despite being the year's most honored), I cannot comprehend the Academy failing to finally give the final part in the amazingly popular The Lord of the Rings trilogy an Oscar if only for the chutzpah it took to appease fanboys and critics alike.  Although my preference is with The Two Towers (which rightly lost last year, but to the wrong film), it's understandable that Peter Jackson's massive production will ultimately get its recognition on its third try. [Order of Chance: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Mystic River, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Seabiscuit, Lost in Translation]

Best Director
Sofia Coppola (Lost in Translation), Clint Eastwood (Mystic River), Peter Jackson (The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King), Fernando Meirelles (City of God), and Peter Weir (Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World)

Should win: Fernando Meirelles (City of God).

Will win: Peter Jackson (The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King).  Again, it seems nearly impossible that the Academy will fail to honor Jackson for a film trilogy that defied all expectations and turned out as one of the greatest audience and critical success stories of the new century (wow, that sounds like cheesy promotional box art writing). [Order of Chance: Peter Jackson (The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King), Peter Weir (Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World), Clint Eastwood (Mystic River), Fernando Meirelles (City of God), Sofia Coppola (Lost in Translation)]

Best Actor
Johnny Depp (Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl), Ben Kingsley (House of Sand and Fog), Jude Law (Cold Mountain), Bill Murray (Lost in Translation), and Sean Penn (Mystic River)

Should win: Sean Penn (Mystic River).

Will win: Sean Penn (Mystic River).  As time goes by, the likelihood of Penn getting the award becomes more muddled despite being the long understood frontrunner.  It's not wholly impossible that his performance (compared to Method acting Dean and Brando by A.O. Scott) will somehow lose out to Bill Murray in his career-defining role in Lost in Translation.  Also watch out for Johnny Depp, carefully placed as this year's spoiler, the perfect benefactor in the event that Penn and Murray split the vote.  I said this was a possibility directly after the nominations came out -- this seems even more possible after happening last week at the SAG awards. [Order of Chance: Sean Penn (Mystic River), Bill Murray (Lost in Translation), Johnny Depp (Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl), Jude Law (Cold Mountain), Ben Kingsley (House of Sand and Fog)]

Best Actress
Keisha Castle-Hughes (Whale Rider), Diane Keaton (Something's Gotta Give), Samantha Morton (In America), Charlize Theron (Monster), and Naomi Watts (21 Grams)

Should win: Naomi Watts (21 Grams).

Will win: Charlize Theron (Monster).  Despite being my nominee for the year's most overrated performance (give the makeup people the Oscar, not the actress in this case), Theron should walk away with an easy win.  Her biggest competitor was Nicole Kidman, longtime bridesmaid and finally bride at the Oscars, who didn't even make it to the final three. [Order of Chance: Charlize Theron (Monster), Keisha Castle-Hughes (Whale Rider), Naomi Watts (21 Grams), Diane Keaton (Something's Gotta Give), Samantha Morton (In America)]

Best Supporting Actor
Alec Baldwin (The Cooler), Benicio Del Toro (21 Grams), Djimon Hounsou (In America), Tim Robbins (Mystic River), and Ken Watanabe (The Last Samurai)

Should win: Tim Robbins (Mystic River).

Will win: Tim Robbins (Mystic River).  Robbins isn't as much of a sure-bet as Theron, but he does have the cards stacked heavily for him.  Most of his competitors delivered forgettable performances (with all due respect) in fairly forgettable films (with the exception of In America, a film that was forgotten but didn't deserve to be).  Alec Baldwin has received accolades for his performance in The Cooler, but voters who make it through the film (a painful experience indeed) are unlikely to care enough to give him the edge to win. [Order of Chance: Tim Robbins (Mystic River), Alec Baldwin (The Cooler), Benicio Del Toro (21 Grams), Ken Watanabe (The Last Samurai), Djimon Hounsou (In America)]

Best Supporting Actress
Shohreh Aghdashloo (House of Sand and Fog), Patricia Clarkson (Pieces of April), Marcia Gay Harden (Mystic River), Holly Hunter (Thirteen), and Renée Zellweger (Cold Mountain)

Should win: Marcia Gay Harden (Mystic River).

Will win: Renée Zellweger (Cold Mountain).  Although I'm not bought onto the love train critics are having with Zellweger in Cold Mountain (it's possibly her most lackluster performances), it is amazingly showy, amazingly preachy, and amazingly perfect for Oscar.  Like Kidman, she has long been a forgotten gem among nominees in any given year, which should allow her the edge.  However, do not count out Shohreh Aghdashloo, who gave one of the year's best performances in an otherwise worthless film.  DreamWorks has received some criticism for an ad campaign that noted critics preferring Aghdashloo over Zellweger.  Despite chastisement by the Academy for negative campaigning, this may ultimately pay off. [Order of Chance: Renée Zellweger (Cold Mountain), Shohreh Aghdashloo (House of Sand and Fog), Marcia Gay Harden (Mystic River), Patricia Clarkson (Pieces of April), Holly Hunter (Thirteen)]

Best Cinematography
City of God, Cold Mountain, Girl with a Pearl Earring, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, and Seabiscuit

Should win: City of God.

Will win: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World. In one of this year's many five-way races, I'm giving Master and Commander the ever-so slight edge over the pack out of regard for the Academy's love for classical storytelling in epic proportions.  If they choose subtlety, Seabiscuit is a likely choice, while City of God gets the award if they choose to honor the film with the most vitality.  Cold Mountain and Girl with a Pearl Earring may seem like also-rans to the niches of other films in this category, but veteran cinematographers John Seale and Eduardo Serra should not be counted out. [Order of Chance: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Seabiscuit, Cold Mountain, City of God, Girl with a Pearl Earring]

Best Foreign Language Film
The Barbarian Invasions (Canada), Evil (Sweden), The Twilight Samurai (Japan), Twin Sisters (The Netherlands), and Îelary (Czech Republic)

Should win: N/A. I have not seen any of the nominees.

Will win: Evil (Sweden).  Without any nominee other than The Barbarian Invasions getting a release in the states before the Oscars, it becomes nearly impossible to gauge the field.  The tough subject matter of the Canadian entry hurts it slightly, but I don't know enough about the other four films to give sufficient reasoning as to why they have the support to win it.  I guess I'll go with Evil if only for my Swedish grandparents. [Order of Chance: Evil (Sweden), The Barbarian Invasions (Canada), Twin Sisters (The Netherlands), The Twilight Samurai (Japan), Îelary (Czech Republic)]

Best Animated Film
Brother Bear, Finding Nemo, and The Triplets of Belleville

Should win: The Triplets of Belleville.

Will win: Finding Nemo. While Finding Nemo may not be the best of the Pixar films, it is still a dazzlingly strong addition to that company's oeuvre; expect the Academy to embrace its lighthearted atmosphere, amazing images, and simple but enjoyable storytelling.  In a perfect world, the spirit of Francophilia in The Triplets of Belleville would overcome Nemo, but that seems entirely unlikely.  Meanwhile, congratulations must be given to Disney for showing its remaining dominance in this genre by getting two of the three nominations.  Don't expect this to happen much in a few years since their contract with Pixar has fallen through. [Order of Chance: Finding Nemo, The Triplets of Belleville, Brother Bear]

Best Original Screenplay
The Barbarian Invasions, Dirty Pretty Things, Finding Nemo, In America, and Lost in Translation

Should win: In America.

Will win: Lost in Translation. Three of the year's best films deservedly get nominations and duke it out.  Regardless, Sophia Coppola should have little trouble getting the edge with her witty and artistic screenplay to Lost in Translation. [Order of Chance: Lost in Translation, In America, Dirty Pretty Things, Finding Nemo, The Barbarian Invasions]

Best Adapted Screenplay
American Splendor, City of God, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Mystic River, and Seabiscuit

Should win: Mystic River.

Will win: Mystic River. Four of the five competitors all seem like strong possibilities, but the edge must be given to Brian Helgeland's screenplay to Mystic River.  The Academy voters will likely want to garner some support for the film even if they are giving most of their votes to The Lord of the Rings -- this category looks like the opportune place to give that award to Mystic River.  Helgeland, who has one of the most uneven track records in film history (he won the Oscar for L.A. Confidential the same year he got the Razzie for The Postman), has deservedly received credit for turning the fairly inadaptable Dennis Lehane novel into a great film.  Expect him to accept the award unless a Lord of the Rings streak occurs, American Splendor gets a surprise honor, or Seabiscuit wins for the same spread-the-wealth reasoning behind a Mystic River win. [Order of Chance: Mystic River, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Seabiscuit, American Splendor, City of God]

--THE TECHNICAL AWARDS--

Best Visual Effects
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, and Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

Should win: Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl.

Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.  It's a given, plus this is the only category where The Lord of the Rings trilogy can dominate three years running. [Order of Chance: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World]

Best Film Editing
City of God, Cold Mountain, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, and Seabiscuit

Should win: City of God.

Will win: City of God. If enough Academy voters see City of God, it's impossible that it will lose in this category.  The trick is getting all those Hollywood elder statesmen to see it. [Order of Chance: City of God, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Seabiscuit, Cold Mountain]

Best Sound
The Last Samurai, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, and Seabiscuit

Should win: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World.

Will win: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World. Another five-way race with Master and Commander's classical storytelling getting enough steam to take it past The Lord of the Rings. [Order of Chance: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Seabiscuit, The Last Samurai]

Best Sound Effects Editing
Finding Nemo, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, and Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

Should win: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World.

Will win: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World. The sound effects of the sea are in a three-way battle that will likely allow for a double win for Master and Commander unless enough of its votes are siphoned off by Pirates of the Caribbean. [Order of Chance: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Finding Nemo]

Best Original Score
Big Fish, Cold Mountain, Finding Nemo, House of Sand and Fog, and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Should win: Cold Mountain.

Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.  The Lord of the Rings, Finding Nemo, and Cold Mountain, all representing different styles of film scoring, are likely to have a tight battle for this award (with the amount of hands-in-the-air tight battles I'm predicting, I'm becoming more comfortable believing that there may be a tie in some category this year).  Expect Howard Shore, who lost last year, to get an award as long as Academy voters do not feel that he's used the same music across the trilogy. [Order of Chance: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Finding Nemo, Cold Mountain, Big Fish, House of Sand and Fog]

Best Original Song
"Belleville Rendez-Vous" (The Triplets of Belleville), "Into the West" (The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King), "A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" (A Mighty Wind), "Scarlet Tide" (Cold Mountain), and "You Will Be My Ain True Love" (Cold Mountain)

Should win: "A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" (A Mighty Wind).

Will win: "A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" (A Mighty Wind). It's tough to decide on this one, so I'm going with left-field personal favorite "A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow."  Coming from one of the year's best comedy, filled with songs that are unforgettable, A Mighty Wind's chances of winning was greatly helped by having only one nominee (the split of two nominees will likely hurt Cold Mountain's songs).  If The Lord of the Rings does especially strong in other categories, though, it may just pick up this category too. [Order of Chance: "A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" (A Mighty Wind), "Into the West" (The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King), "You Will Be My Ain True Love" (Cold Mountain), "Belleville Rendez-Vous" (The Triplets of Belleville), "Scarlet Tide" (Cold Mountain)]

Best Makeup
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, and Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

Should win: Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl.

Will win: Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl.  It should be an easy win for Pirates of the Caribbean, but The Lord of the Rings sweeping technical awards cannot be underestimated. [Order of Chance: Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World]

Best Costume Design
Girl with a Pearl Earring, The Last Samurai, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, and Seabiscuit

Should win: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World.

Will win: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World.  Five-way race with the crux of my prediction coming down to a guttural feeling that the multi-nominee Master and Commander will do especially well in the artsy technical awards. [Order of Chance: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Girl with a Pearl Earring, Seabiscuit, The Last Samurai]

Best Art Direction
Girl with a Pearl Earring, The Last Samurai, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, and Seabiscuit

Should win: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World.

Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.  Master and Commander looks primed to take this away from The Lord of the Rings, although I'm uncomfortable betting on any Rings nomination as losing come Sunday. [Order of Chance: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Girl with a Pearl Earring, Seabiscuit, The Last Samurai]

Best Documentary Feature
Balseros, Capturing the Friedmans, The Fog of War, My Architect, and The Weather Underground

Should win: The Fog of War.

Will win: The Fog of War. I haven't seen My Architect, which has received many accolades and may upset the field.  However, the Oscar-friendly Balseros may have to live with a nomination this year since Errol Morris, delivering one of his greatest films, is likely to walk away with this one. [Order of Chance: The Fog of War, Balseros, Capturing the Friedmans, My Architect, The Weather Underground]

Best Documentary Short Subject
Asylum, Chernobyl Heart, and Ferry Tales

Should win: N/A. I have not seen any of the nominees.

Will win: Chernobyl Heart. [Order of Chance: Chernobyl Heart, Ferry Tales, Asylum]

Best Live-Action Short Film
Die Rote Jacke, Most, Squash, (A) Torzija, and Two Soldiers

Should win: N/A. I have not seen any of the nominees.

Will win: Two Soldiers. [Order of Chance: Two Soldiers, Most, Die Rote Jacke, Squash, (A) Torzija]

Best Animated Short Film
Boundin', Destino, Gone Nutty, Harvie Krumpet, and Nibbles

Should win: N/A. I have not seen any of the nominees.

Will win: Boundin'. [Order of Chance: Boundin', Destino, Harvie Krumpet, Gone Nutty, Nibbles]

--FINAL TALLY--

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King...5
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World...4
Mystic River...3
Boundin'...1
Chernobyl Heart...1
City of God...1
Cold Mountain...1
Evil...1
Finding Nemo...1
The Fog of War...1
Lost in Translation...1
A Mighty Wind...1
Monster...1
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl...1
Two Soldiers...1

Analysis by:
David Perry
©2003, Cinema-Scene.com

http://www.cinema-scene.com